• A Bayesian Model for Football Scores using the Bookmakers Odds
    Leonardo Egidi, Francesco Pauli, Nicola Torelli
    The plots provided in the links below are derived from a draft of paper in which a hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for the home and the away goals, respectively modeled through two conditionally independent Poisson distributions. The Poisson rates are convex combinations of two parameters weighted with a certain probability, and they refer to two separate sources of information: the historical data and the bookmakers' betting odds. Preliminary simulations and predictions show a good predictive accuracy on hold-out data and good efficiency in terms of betting strategies.

    • Estimation of the attack and defence teams' abilities
      See the graphs
    • Posterior predictive distribution of the matches outcomes
      See the graphs
    • Posterior predictive distribution for the achieved points
      See the graphs